Monday, December 4, 2017

Big Data = Big Changes for the NBA


Technology is used in every industry to make organizations more efficient and enhance their operations. The NBA is no different. The big data revolution made its way to sports through the MLB with the famous “Moneyball” method used by the Oakland A’s. This innovative technique of valuing players by measures other than the standard box scores changed baseball forever and has done the same for the NBA. The movement really gained momentum when, in 2014, new commissioner Adam Silver made the decision to put cameras in the rafters of all 29 NBA arenas. As Kirk Goldsberry, who is currently in charge of analytics for the San Antonio Spurs, puts it, “These stationary drones in the rafters are beaming gigabytes of potentially vital intelligence back to video rooms and practice facilities across the league” (Goldsberry, 2014).

These player tracking systems have been useful to pinpoint areas in which players excel in as well as the little things they do that do not show up in the box score. A player who boxes out well but does not get the rebound does not provide any value to the old box score stats but with advanced stats we can measure the percentage of offensive rebounds a player gives up. The emphasis is on what are they key things that help teams win instead of who is scoring the most points, getting the most assists, or grabbing the most rebounds. The game of basketball is so intricate and these cameras take pictures every millisecond capturing the details that have been so heavily missed in the past.

Which spots on the court a player usually shoots from, where they are most effective in defending, and how units work together are all things people have looked past as non-important but now that we can quantify the value of these actions different types of players are being valued more.

One of these players is the Golden State Warriors’ Draymond Green. As Terrance Ross explains the effect of quantifying the intangible, “It’s also why guys like the Warriors’ Draymond Green, who are adaptable and effective, are now so highly sought after throughout the league” (Ross, 2015). Versatile players that can defend different positions have become a highly sought out commodity. Take the Cavaliers’ Tristan Thompson for example: he is averaging 8.1 points and 9.7 rebounds this year. Pretty good stats but I bet you wouldn’t expect he signed a max contract of 5 years and $82 million.



 His ability to adequately guard every position, his offensive rebounding, and hustle stats are the reasons for this huge payday. The value of a player like Tristan Thompson or Draymond Green could have been easily overlooked in the old days but now with these advanced metrics these players are crucial for success.

Another huge outcome of the analytic movement has been the emergence of the 3 point shot. Analytics tells us through different valuing methods and statistical inference that midrange two pointers are not as valuable as three pointers even though the difficulty is a little higher. In the 2015 season the top 5 teams in three point field goals made were:
  • Rockets
  • Warriors
  • Clippers
  • Cavaliers
  • Hawks
These were also the last 5 remaining teams in the playoffs. This is definitely not a coincidence but these teams saw a trend through the data and built their teams to take advantage of a system that has been very fruitful.

 Although it is commonly agreed that data analytics is changing the NBA for good, there are many skeptics. Many players from the older generation thinks it is a bunch of numbers that do not take into account the whole story of the game and one of the biggest anti-analytics activists is Charles Barkley. They believe that the eye test and the old fashioned box score are enough to evaluate talent but the results beg to differ.

This video by iNerdSome gives a great explanation on how analytics and technology have changed the NBA and will continue to do so.



List of References:
Goldsberry, K. (2014, February 06). “DataBall”. (http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/)

iNerdSome. “How NBA Analytics are changing the game,” YouTube, Oct. 21, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F-pEeSTPkE

Ross, T. (2015, June 25). “Welcome to Smarter Basketball”. (https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/06/nba-data-analytics/396776/)

2 comments:

  1. This is a really interesting post Avaneesh. I like how you took the information from articles and made your own comments and examples. It is interesting that the last 5 teams in the 2015 playoffs were also the top 5 3 point shooting teams. It is interesting how statistics, data, and math have become so important in a realm completely ruled by athletes and jocks. Another interesting statistic called PER is being reevaluated and changed with new statistics. PER is supposed to measure how much of an impact a single player has on a teams ability to win.

    It will be interesting to see how statistics in the NBA progress through the coming years!

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  2. Hey Avaneesh, I can see how more detailed data can influence NBA teams and really all of sports as a whole. The statistics that are normally taken in basketball (points, 3's, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, %'s) are key indicators of who is a good player and who is not however like you noted about tristan thompson it was not all he was about. The more detailed statistics that are hard to quantify with pen and paper are able to be seen through NBA big data and will allow overlooked players to shine for years to come.

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